After a brief stint in South America, the PGA Tour returns to the US, albeit on the other side of the country, as it enters a 4 week long ‘Florida Swing’, starting with the Honda Classic. PGA National will play host, as it has done since 2007. A true ball-strikers golf course, where GIR (greens in regulation) ranks above all else. At a modest 7,140 yards it does allow some of the tours shorter hitters a chance to claim victory. Once again Billy Horschel was in consideration, but with the best odds at 33/1 I just couldn’t pull the trigger, which leaves us the 5 guys below.
Russell Henley
A guy who looked very much out of sorts, missing 5 straight cuts, managed to find his swing again at the Genesis where he ended up finishing in a tie for 17th place. Although his results haven’t been great, he still ranks 40th in Greens in Regulation. He’s had his struggles with the putter since 2018, but being a past winner of this event may just help to change his mindset, and spur him onto an important victory.
Each-Way Winner
Best Available Odds: 100/1 with Several – Stake 0.40% (0.20% each-way) or £20 (£10 each-way)
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 80/1
Top 10 Finish
Best Available Odds: 17/2 with Paddy Power – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 15/2
Top 20 Finish
Best Available Odds: 4/1 with Boyle Sports – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3/1
Best Exchange Odds
Outright Winner @ 85.00 with Betfair
Top 5 @ 18.00 with Betfair
Top 10 @ 7.20 with Betfair
Top 20 @ 3.50 with Betfair
Matt NeSmith
I have had my eye on NeSmith for quite some time, but he just hasn’t matched up well with some courses, or his odds have been a little too short, until this week. His stats are off the chart, 24th in strokes gained putting, 36th in strokes gained total, and importantly 14th in greens in regulation. He’s made 6 straight cuts, 6th and 11th place finishes in recent weeks.
Each-Way Winner
Best Available Odds: 90/1 with Several – Stake 0.40% (0.20% each-way) or £20 (£10 each-way)
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 70/1
Top 10 Finish
Best Available Odds: 15/2 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 13/2
Top 20 Finish
Best Available Odds: 7/2 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3/1
Best Exchange Odds
Outright Winner @ 110.00 with Betfair
Top 5 @ 20.00 with Betfair
Top 10 @ 6.40 with Betfair
Top 20 @ 3.20 with Betfair
Russell Knox
A bit of an old favourite of mine, Knox has somewhat disappeared from the upper echelon on European golfer, and subsequently out of the world’s top 100. His game does suit PGA National, which 2nd and 3rd place finishes would attest, not to mention he ranks 16th in greens in regulation. The Florida native my just enjoy some home comforts this week.
Each-Way Winner
Best Available Odds: 80/1 with Several – Stake 0.40% (0.20% each-way) or £20 (£10 each-way)
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 70/1
Top 10 Finish
Best Available Odds: 13/2 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 11/2
Top 20 Finish
Best Available Odds: 10/3 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3/1
Best Exchange Odds
Outright Winner @ 95.00 with Betfair
Top 5 @ 12.00 with Betfair
Top 10 @ 7.40 with Betfair
Top 20 @ 3.20 with Betfair
Tom Hoge
Yep, it’s that time again, Hoge time. After a few quiet weeks his odds have risen quite nicely, and perfectly timed. Whilst his greens in regulation (151st) is very poor, he does rank 15th in strokes gained approaching the green, and 28th in proximity to the hole. In what is a slightly weaker field this week, he may finally grab that maiden tour win.
Each-Way Winner
Best Available Odds: 125/1 with Several – Stake 0.40% (0.20% each-way) or £20 (£10 each-way)
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 90/1
Top 10 Finish
Best Available Odds: 9/1 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 13/2
Top 20 Finish
Best Available Odds: 11/2 with Bet Victor – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 10/3
Best Exchange Odds
Outright Winner @ 110.00 with Betfair
Top 5 @ 25.00 with Betfair
Top 10 @ 7.60 with Betfair
Top 20 @ 3.75 with Betfair
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
We backed Lee last week, and whilst he disappointed slightly his 14th place finish did secure some profit. He’s tee’d it up twice at PGA National, finishes inside the top 10 both times, one of which was a 7th place finish last year. His stats really don’t blow anyone away, but I’m happy to put some small stakes on fairly big odds.
Each-Way Winner
Best Available Odds: 110/1 with Bet365 – Stake 0.40% (0.20% each-way) or £20 (£10 each-way)
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 100/1
Top 10 Finish
Best Available Odds: 10/1 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 9/1
Top 20 Finish
Best Available Odds: 9/2 with Several – Stake 0.40% or £20
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 10/3
Best Exchange Odds
Outright Winner @ 120.00 with Betfair
Top 5 @ 22.00 with Betfair
Top 10 @ 6.60 with Betfair
Top 20 @ 3.50 with Betfair
*When betting through exchanges, you may want to wait until Wednesday or Thursday morning, for the best odds in the Top 5, 10 and 20 markets.
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